If you recall in past fantasy football seasons here at The Athletic, the rest-of-season Big Board rankings and trade value chart were separate entities. Well, we’re doing something different this year, combining Brandon Funston’s rankings with Austin Mock’s trade value chart, essentially killing two birds with one stone. And we added a downloadable version of the chart at the bottom of this column.
Advertisement
This chart (board?) is meant to be used as a general player valuation guide for the basis of fantasy football trade negotiations in 1QB, half-PPR formats. Of course, beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and certainly readers will find disagreements with some of the valuations here. That’s fine — again, this is just another tool at your disposal as you try to determine a deal that might work for you in your league. That said, before we get to the chart, here are Funston’s explanations for some of the biggest value differences on this board compared to the industry consensus (ECR).
Ranked Considerably Higher by Funston
Derrick Henry, RB, TEN — Henry is my No. 5 RB, while his ECR is RB11. Here are Henry’s career Yards Per Carry averages by month:
- September — 3.86
- October — 4.45
- November — 5.13
- December — 5.47
This season, “December Derrick” will see Indianapolis, Miami, Houston (twice) and Seattle in the final month of 2023 (Weeks 13-17). Of those teams, only the Colts aren’t currently ranked among the 10 most generous defenses to RBs in fantasy. I wouldn’t let recency bias — 11 carries, 20 yards vs. CLE in Week 3 — get the upper hand here. The Browns are as good a defense as I’ve seen this season. He’s checking the volume box, and I still expect Henry to gain steam — while defenses show less enthusiasm to tackle him — as the season progresses.
Jakobi Meyers, WR, LV — Meyers is once again shaping up to be a member of the All-Rodney Dangerfield team. Meyers turned in a WR31 tally in 2022 despite missing three games. In 2021, he was WR36 despite scoring just 2 touchdowns. Now he’s in Las Vegas, playing a healthy second fiddle to Davante Adams in the Raiders’ short-to-intermediate range pass attack — wheelhouse territory for QB Jimmy Garoppolo. All Meyers has done in two games is average 11 targets, 8 catches and 83 yards, while finding the end zone twice. I feel guilty ranking Meyers as only my WR34, but ECR has him as WR44 — disrespectful!
Advertisement
Marvin Mims Jr., WR, DEN — Big-play ability is a treasured talent in the NFL. Explosive plays are in a class with turnovers in terms of game outcome-influencing events. That’s why I’ve pushed the rookie Mims to back-end of the WR4 class (WR48), while his ECR is WR55. Despite ranking just 115th in snaps at the WR position (48) and 92nd in targets at the position (9), Mims has gone for 30+ yards on 4 of his 7 catches — that’s tied for second with Tyreek Hill, only one behind the leader, Justin Jefferson. Oh, and he’s also turned in a 99-yard kickoff return and a 45-yard punt return. Speaking of Tyreek Hill, it was his big-play ability that proved too valuable to keep out of the lineup in his 2016 rookie campaign. Hill had just 29 offensive snaps through his first three games, but closed out with no less than 25 snaps in any of his final nine games en route to a Top 20 WR fantasy finish. The point of the story is that Mims is already forcing Denver’s hand, especially in a season where they already have nothing to lose.
Ranked Considerably Lower by Funston
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, NE — I had high hopes for Stevenson this season, but my faith is already starting to waiver. Stevenson ranks in front of only Cam Akers in Yards After Contact/Attempt among qualified running backs with a woeful 0.8 rate. And Stevenson isn’t facing much of a headwind in terms of stacked boxes by opposing defenses, as his rate of seeing 8+ defenders in the box (10.87) is ninth-lowest among qualified running backs. His efficiency has been woeful, thus far, and Ezekiel Elliott seeing 16 carries at a productive 5.0 YPC clip in Week 3 is a little bit concerning. I’m still willing to buy him as a bubble RB1 (he’s my RB14), but the ECR has him basically at his preseason draft value (RB8).
Chris Godwin, WR, TB — Godwin is WR27 in ECR. That feels like an auto-pilot rank without any consideration for the context clues of the here and now — as in three weeks of Baker Mayfield compared to the luxury ride with Tom Brady for the past three seasons. Godwin is currently averaging 47 receiving yards — which would be his lowest rate since his 2017 rookie season — and his 19 targets rank 41st among wideouts. He’s faced a fairly easy WR schedule to this point, as Minnesota (third) and Philadelphia (ninth) both rank among the Top 10 friendliest matchups for WRs in fantasy to this point, and his other opponent (Chicago) is 14th. Also disconcerting is that the Buccaneers have a narrow target tree, with teammate Mike Evans (28) and Godwin (19) combining for 47 targets, with the rest of the team’s receiving options combing for 42 targets. It’s basically a two-man show in the Bucs’ passing game, but the spotlight is back on Mike Evans — this no longer looks like a 1A-1B situation, and that’s why I’m at WR36 on Godwin.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, SEA — JSN has seen at least 30 snaps in each of Seattle’s three games this season, and the Seahawks are in the top half of the league in pass attempts, passing yards and passing TDs. Unfortunately, the rookie first rounder has been mostly a non-factor in all of it, pulling in just 9 catches for a meager 57 yards — only Kadarius Toney, Parris Campbell and Deonte Harty average fewer than JSN’s 6.3 Yards Per Catch among qualified receivers. I still believe in his future, I’m just having a hard time seeing JSN’s fit in an offense that prioritizes a balanced run/pass attack and has two well-established receivers in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. In the 13-year Pete Carroll era in Seattle, the Seahawks have had just one No. 3 WR finish inside the Top 50 receivers in half-PPR scoring — Jermaine Kearse, WR47 in 2015. JSN will likely need an injury to achieve his WR39 ECR, and that’s not something I care to bet on — he’s my WR55.
The Week 4 Chart
(Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
ncG1vNJzZmismJqutbTLnquim16YvK57k3JncGhnbHxzfJFsZmlxX2eFcMPEnqJmbF2brq%2FAwKywZp6fpMGjrculZK2qkZmybsLApayeZZKetG6uzpqpnWc%3D